From geo-political tensions to economic development, technological advancements to business transformation, and TV series to books, many original and thought-provoking submissions were received from SMU students who gave their take of what lies in store for the world in The World in 2015 Prediction Competition organised by The Economist.  

This is the second year that SMU is partnering The Economist to organise the competition, which serves to provide our students the opportunity to pen their thoughts and predictions for the coming year.

10 entries were shortlisted by editors at The Economist, with SMU President Professor Arnoud De Meyer picking the top three predictions. The winning entry was selected and announced by Mr Daniel Franklin, Executive Editor of The Economist, at the gala dinner held in Four Seasons Hotel on 18 November 2014.

Caleb Khoo’s submission caught the eyes of the judges and emerged the overall winner. The Year-2 student from the School of Economics gave a broad sweep of what he thought would emerge or happen in 2015, and condensed his predictions into three parts which he termed ‘The Mood, the Movement, and the Mobilisation’. Under ‘The Mood: Winter is coming’, Caleb said “2015 is a year of transition towards major world crises, and one observes telltale signs, analogous to how leaves fall in autumn before winter.” He warned of the confrontation between Russia and the West, brinkmanship between countries in Asia, and the disharmony in China.

In ‘The Movement: Waxing and waning’, Caleb opined that one of mankind’s oldest dreams of living in space would come true with the launch of the world’s first commercial space flight, and that the much talked-about Apple Watch would not replace our wristwatches any time soon. As for ‘The Mobilisation: Growing stronger’, he predicted that the sharing and collaborative consumption economy would become mature; huge funding rounds closed by Uber and Airbnb would give them vast sums of capital to take their business mainstream and cement their place in our daily lives; and people will be nudged into the dawn of mobile payment technology as a result. “Increasing numbers of mobile users, and better access to Wi-Fi, will completely transform the business landscape. Everyone understands the power of mobile, but until now it has not shaped traditional activities such as going to work and doing daily shopping. 2015 is the year where it all starts to truly happen,” he concluded.

The other two finalists were Gabriel Low from School of Information Systems (Year 3), and Joel Tan Wen Rong from Lee Kong Chian School of Business (Year 2).

In his submission titled “2015: The clash of ideologies, civil unrest and conflict”,  Gabriel predicted that the year will see a rise in civil unrest around the globe as groups compete for political power in violent protests. “It will also see the civil and ethnic conflict in the Middle East escalate into a large-scale war involving the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).” In Hong Kong, he opined that the struggle by pro-democracy protesters will continue to persist through 2015 unless China is able to provide a resolution, by making an offering such as a certain degree of autonomy for the people of Hong Kong, or by means of coercion. In Indonesia, Gabriel felt that protests and riots will continue against new Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama until he gains the trust and support of Jakarta’s people, after which a shift in the Indonesian mindset will trend towards electing leaders that will bring progress and stability to the nation without regard to race or religion. As for the Middle East, the growing strength of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will result in an escalation of ethnic conflicts. “When this eventually threatens the safety of Jews, the United States and its allies will inevitably be drawn into war to defend Israel.”

In his conclusion, Gabriel said “I believe globalisation and grassroots activism are the two key components in this rising trend. As the world progresses towards an interconnected society, we see an increase in exchange of world views, ideas and cultures. While many view this as the progress of globalisation, others feel threatened by its influence. Corruption and misgovernment are also taking their toll on society, resulting in grassroots protests and violence in affected countries. To reverse this growing trend across the globe, governments and the international community will need to collaborate towards crafting a political solution based on a less nihilistic vision of the future.”

For 2015, Joel Tan felt that it would be the year of transformation. On the economic front, he predicted a shadow-banking crisis, a Western sovereign debt crisis, and the bursting of new housing bubbles and emerging-market asset bubbles, all exacerbated by cheap debt financing and low interest rates. The formation of the Eurasian Union and Lithuania becoming the nineteenth country to join the Eurozone might bring some cheer, but “with Europe’s economy so moribund and international sanctions in force on Russia, the economic spillover effect of these developments is questionable.”

On the geopolitical front, Joel felt that NATO would be stretching its resources in combating ISIS and the possibility of a conflict with Russia. A protracted Cold War between US and Russia might emerge, or there could be a resolution.

As for technology, “2015 will be the year that cloud-computing technology emerges into a powerhouse of groundbreaking innovation”, while “, virtual reality technology will pave the way for the next era of computing and content delivery.” Although the scientific and technological advancement have led to a decreasing need to rely on religion, and various personalities have predicted the end of the world, Joel concluded that “the possibility of such a colossal calamity is inordinately remote. We would rather remember 2015 as a year of revolutionary transformation.”

The Gala Dinner also featured a keynote interview with Mr Benigno S. Aquino III, President of the Philippines, a speech on ‘The year in Business’ by Mr Vijay Vaitheeswaran, China Business Editor and Shanghai Bureau Chief of The Economist, and a photo presentation by Mr Jim Richardson, a photographer with National Geographic.

To view the full text of the three winning submissions, please visit: http://www.economistinsights.com/business-strategy/event/world-2015-gala-dinner-singapore/tab/2

[Featured photo: SMU President Professor Arnoud De Meyer (second from right) flanked by (from left to right):Gabriel Low, Caleb Khoo and Joel Tan at The World in 2015 Gala Dinner organised by The Economist.] (Photo: The Economist)