“In 2005, when I led the first strategic dialogue with the Chinese, I gave a speech that used the concept of a ‘responsible stakeholder’ for China. The idea was to recognise that after China had joined the WTO, the international system that had been created after World War 2 – trade, monetary – had actually served China quite well, and the system allowed China to grow. I was suggesting that China needs to be seen as a stakeholder in the system, and to assume responsibilities in the system.”

Mr Robert B. Zoellick, the 15th speaker of the Presidential Distinguished Lecturer Series (PDLS), was addressing a question about China during the dialogue session on ‘The Perspectives and Prospects of The Contemporary Global Economy Through the Eyes of Asia’. More than 350 participants, comprising a good mix of business leaders, entrepreneurs, fund managers, investment bankers, and SMU Community attended the dialogue at the Mochtar Riady Auditorium on 1 July 2014. Unlike previous PDLS lectures where the speaker would deliver a speech, the entire session of this PDLS was devoted to a dialogue to enable members of the audience more opportunities to raise questions of deep interest to them. SMU President Professor Arnoud De Meyer moderated the discussion.

Mr Zoellick is currently a Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, and Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

He served as the 11th President of the World Bank from 2007–2012. Before that, he had distinguished himself with many years of service in the public and private sectors, including serving as Vice Chairman, International of the Goldman Sachs Group, Managing Director, and Chairman of Goldman Sachs' Board of International Advisors; Deputy Secretary of the U.S. State Department;  and US Trade Representative.

Sharing his observations of China’s reforms, Mr Zoellick felt that after 30 years of rapid growth, it is very impressive that the Chinese leadership recognise they have to change the economic structure which is based on exports and investments and high savings rate. “I can think of many economies in the world which will find it difficult to change after doing so well. The challenge now is the sequencing and pursuing of those reforms”, he said. “Some have said that China can break from the old system and start again, but now it has been acknowledged this is too complicated. In the past 30 years, leaders at any level in China had a very clear objective: growth. But now, they have to deal with multiple objectives, which are much more complicated, be it environmental protection, social stability, et cetera.”

He opined that this is why China President Xi Jinping has consolidated power much faster than Sinologists had expected, such as setting up a new national security council, the use of party high level leading groups to drive the reform process, and combining these with the anti-corruption campaign. All these suggest that President Xi would use these to push the reform movement. However, Mr Zoellick warned that one should not underestimate the challenges faced by the Chinese leadership. “The leaders have to break up the vested interest groups. So whether it is Singapore, ASEAN, Europe or US, there’s a lot dependent on this moving in an effective direction,” he said.

Mr Zoellick felt that “the boldness of China’s economic reforms will be combined with real political cautiousness because the leaders do not want to risk any upheaval.”

Turning to the US and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Mr Zoellick said that at the intellectual level, the US administration is committed to TPP, the challenge for the US is for President Obama to work with the Congress and the trade promotion authorities to close the deal. It is also imperative for the US President to bring along the political constituencies to support TPP. 

[Photo: A participant posing a question to Mr Zoellick during the Question & Answer session.]

In a lively Question & Answer session, Mr Zoellick fielded numerous questions from an enthusiastic audience. They asked about relations between Japan and China, Abenomics, the role of the US in global affairs, free trade and social inequality, and the impact of US tapering on Asian economies.

The Presidential Distinguished Lecturer Series was launched in 2005 with the aim of stimulating discussions among faculty, staff and students as well as the larger external audience on issues of contemporary interest and significance. Internationally-renowned and respected academics, scholars and business leaders who have attained prominence in their respective fields, are invited to share their refreshing insights and experience at this lecture series so as to grow and enrich the intellectual capacity and diversity of SMU through interactive discourse.