SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Roger Loh and Ohio State University's René Stulz looked at analysts' forecasts of profits and the buy or sell recommendations they issued for the period 1983-2011. Their predictions, it turned out, were less reliable in falling markets than in rising ones, even after making allowances for increased volatility in such times. Analysts' forecasts of profits for the next quarter were out by 46 per cent more during periods of financial crisis than at other times, for instance. Ironically enough, both also found that investors pay more attention to analysts' opinions when times are tough. Normally only one change in ten in analysts' stock recommendations moves the price of the share in question. But the proportion increases to one in seven in falling markets, even though there are more changes during market routs.